Latest production forecast foresees dip in maize output

  • 07 October 2020
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However, South Africa’s 2020 maize output is likely to be lower than previously expected due to the impact of late rains on the quality of the crop this season. Areas across the country experienced favourable weather conditions which translated to much better yields than the harvest hurt by dry weather conditions last season.

Summer Crops

84% of the total crop estimated is expected to come from the three main maize producing provinces: Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga. The forecast estimates that the harvest will consist of 8.954 million tonnes of white maize and 6.432 million tonnes of yellow maize. Overall, the expected commercial maize harvest has been set at 15,422 million tonnes and the yield projection is set at 5,91 t/ha.

Non-commercial maize is forecast at 297 460 ha, which represents a slight increase of 0,49%, compared to the 296 000 ha of last season. The expected maize crop for this sector is 543 545 tons, which is 1,03% less than the 549 180 tons of last season. Most of the non-commercial maize planted is produced in the Eastern Cape (40%) and KwaZulu Natal (27%).

The production forecast for sunflower seed remained unchanged at 785 910 tons. The area estimate for sunflower seed is 500 300 ha, while the expected yield is 1,57 t/ha.

The soybeans production forecast also remained unchanged at 1,261 million tonnes. The estimated area soybeans planted is 705 000 ha and the expected yield is 1,79 t/ha.

Winter Crops

The expected wheat production is 2,024 million tons, which is 3,15% or 61 800 tons more than the previous forecast of 1,962 million tons, whilst the expected yield is 3,97 t/ha. This is the largest expected wheat crop since the 2,130 million tons of the 2008 season.

The production forecast for malting barley is 520 106 tons, which is 2,95% or 14 891 tons more than the previous forecast of 505 215tons. The area planted is estimated at 141 690 ha, while the expected yield is 3,67 t/ha.

The expected canola crop is 126 520 tons, which is 3,01% or 3 700 tonnes more than the previous forecast of 122 820 tons. The area estimate for canola is 74 120 ha, with an expected yield of 1,71 t/ha. The expected oats (cereals) crop for 2020 is 44 900 tons. The revised area estimate is 26 200 ha and the expected yield is 1,71 t/ha.

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